IDC Financial Publishing (IDCFP) has attempted over time to estimate brokered CDs for individual banks. The unknown in the equation has historically been the level of sweep accounts in brokered deposits. As of September 30, bank reports, sweep accounts for individual banks were available on the call reports. IDCFP deducted from…
IDC Financial Publishing (IDCFP) forecast the beginning of the bull market in bank stocks in October 2020 with the anticipated rise in 10-year yields. Our forecasting requires an increase in the 10-year nominal yield, supported by rising TIPS yields, and, especially, a higher German 10-year yield. The first leg of…
Yardeni Research plotted the price of copper with implied inflation (the difference between the 10-year nominal and TIPS yields). Since 2004, once implied inflation reached a peak, the price of copper failed to reach a new high. Given the recent peak in implied inflation of 3%, the price of copper…
In order to understand the forecast of the copper to gold ratio, it is key to examine the components. Copper is the bellwether of the strength of the economy. The price of copper peaked in mid-2018 at $3.42 and fell to a Covid-driven low of $2.15 at the end of…
The flattening of the yield curve, as the U.S. 10-year declines and the 2-year increases, is of great concern to investors today. The fear is that a declining yield curve forecasts a significant economic slowdown, or, if the yield curve narrows to zero, a recession. In the long bank stock bull…
