The U.S. 10-year is expected to rise significantly, led by the breakout of the German 10-year yield from its inverse head-and-shoulder pattern from 2019 to date. The German 10-year broke out to -0.17% recently, and is forecast to rise to zero, and then +0.40% in 2021, leading to U.S. 10-year…
The combined effect of bank leverage forecasts a 54% price appreciation for the index of large banks (BKX) over the next year from the closing stock price on April 23, 2021. Operating Leverage from an Increase in the Operating Return After Tax (ROEA) ROEA is the operating return after taxes, but before…
The Components of CAMEL Out of the 1,750 institutions with brokered deposits, we have identified 79 ranked less than 125 in the fourth quarter of 2020, down from 85 the previous quarter. When we see the number of these poorly rated banks reach a low and begin to rise, both in…
A Review of History As illustrated in Chart I, the low in the German 10-year in June 2016 coincided with the low in bank stocks and a peak in the volatility (VIX), creating the bull market in bank and epicenter stocks that lasted until the peak in the German 10-year in…
For years, brokers, investment advisors, consultants, and others, relied on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) to provide monthly balances of qualifying brokered CDs. Since 2014, however, the level of brokered CDs under $250,000 computed by IDC Financial Publishing (IDCFP) as part of brokered deposits, continues to outpace the…
