In the post-COVID-19 period, import prices provide the best forecast of inflation. As seen in Chart I, the percent growth in U.S. non-fuel import prices forecast U.S. core CPI. Since U.S. inflation is measured by year over year growth, the low registered in the 2nd quarter of 2020 provides a…
The copper to gold ratio has historically been the best forecast for the U.S. 10-year yield. The positive correlation between the two is extremely high, but discrepancies have occurred. As seen in Chart I, from early 2018 to August 2019, during the “tariff wars” and falling German yields, the U.S.…
IDC Financial Publishing (IDCFP) measures relative profitability of bank holding companies by comparing the IDCFP real return on tangible equity (NOPAT ROE) to our definition of the cost of equity (COE). Margin between ROE and COE (included in the “M” in IDCFP’s unique CAMEL analysis) is a key measure of management.…
As a broker, would you be interested to learn about new banks or credit unions as potential issuers of brokered CDs to capitalize on this forecast? Would it be helpful to see the characteristics of these institutions, such as loan to deposit ratio or loan growth, that could be applied…
Credit unions have grown to become a major factor in the U.S. economy, with assets that have grown at nearly twice the pace of banks’ over the past decade.1 Credit unions are owned by their members and are designed to offer lower borrowing costs and higher deposit rates. In addition, the…
