The Remarkable Correlation Between Inflation and Banks Stocks

The Changing Characteristics of Inflation From 2015 to 2020, 5-year-ahead inflation was defined as 5-year implied inflation less 10-year implied inflation, or 5-year inflation five years ahead of current inflation. When 5-year-ahead inflation is less than 5 or 10-year implied inflation, it indicates a deflation formation, as future inflation expectations are…

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Forecasts of Cycle Low in Stock Market

A number of approaches forecast a cycle low in the “bear” stock market in July 2022. The data in the bull camp are as follows: a third big week in five for small caps, signs exchange-traded fund buyers have become healthily demoralized, and measures of market breadth expanding in ways…

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Credit Unions Prepare for Recovery

IDC Financial Publishing, Inc.’s (IDCFP) nontraditional approach to analyzing financial ratios offers a unique perspective to understand a credit union’s level of risk and profitability. Credit unions are compared over time with financial ratios (see attached table Credit Unions National Totals). Using this method, you can also get a similar…

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New Capital Adequacy Standards for Credit Unions

Credit unions with total assets of $50 million and above must now follow different expectations and frameworks when calculating capital ratios. The new capital adequacy standards were implemented on January 1, 2022, from the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). First issued in October 2015 as a result of the 2009…

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Inflation Decelerates in Second Half of 2022

Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli of JP Morgan expects that headliner CPI will step down from a blistering pace of 9.5% annual rate in the first half of 2022 to an elevated 7.2% in 2022Q3 and a subdued 1.7% in 2022Q4. Core CPI inflation moderates from 6.3% in the first…

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