RenMac’s economists, using the April CPI and PPI data, estimated “core PCE” (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) will be reported at 0.30%, or 3.6% annualized, for April.1 Chart I Bond Market 5-Year Implied Inflation at 2.9% Forecasts a Future Core CPI and PCE Below 3% Reasons for Inflation to Peak…
Cycle lows in the High Yield Bond ETF (HYG) historically have occurred at the lows in the stock market (see Chart I). U.S. 10-year yield and high yield bonds have priced in inflation peak and future Fed funds rate increases. The technical picture from DeMark provides a 13 sequential sell signal…
In the next two years, banking financials are expected to improve dramatically based on IDC Financial Publishing‘s (IDC’s) NOPAT ROE rising from 16.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021 to a new 10-year high of 21.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023. As return on equity increases, EPS growth accelerates…
Core PCE peaked in February and is forecast to decline to under 4% in 2022, and 2.4% by year-end 2023. Month-to-month trimmed mean PCE leads core PCE inflation, peaking in January 2022 and declining to 3.1% in March. Chart I Month-to-Month Trimmed Mean PCE Peaked in January 2022 and Forecasts Year-Over-Year…
IDC Financial Publishing (IDCFP) has attempted over time to estimate brokered CDs for individual banks. The unknown in the equation has historically been the level of sweep accounts in brokered deposits. As of September 30, 2021 bank reports, sweep accounts for individual banks were available on the call reports. As of December…
