The Coming Peak and Decline in Inflation

RenMac’s economists, using the April CPI and PPI data, estimated “core PCE” (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) will be reported at 0.30%, or 3.6% annualized, for April.1 Chart I Bond Market 5-Year Implied Inflation at 2.9% Forecasts a Future Core CPI and PCE Below 3% Reasons for Inflation to Peak…

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Core PCE Peaks and Forecast to Decline Through 2023

Core PCE peaked in February and is forecast to decline to under 4% in 2022, and 2.4% by year-end 2023. Month-to-month trimmed mean PCE leads core PCE inflation, peaking in January 2022 and declining to 3.1% in March. Chart I Month-to-Month Trimmed Mean PCE Peaked in January 2022 and Forecasts Year-Over-Year…

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