An Executive Summary of Employ America’s June Core-Cast and Why It Can Core PCE and Core Services Ex Housing are at 2% for this month. While this reading is only from one month, it's the start of a necessary condition. Inflation must run at or below 2% for consecutive months if…
Brokered CDs Reaching New Highs in 2024 Deposit costs at banks reflect competition from yields on the 3-month T-Bill of 5.4%, and the 2-year at 4.8%, coupled with the upward pressure of another potential 25-basis point hike in the Fed funds rate in July. Together, these yields forecast rising deposit costs…
We have found Employ America to be the best and most reliable source in the analysis and forecast of inflation. Below is a summary of their recent newsletter discussing the trajectory of 2023 Core PCE. *Core-Cast is Employ America’s nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their…
U.S. banks are poised for a rebound in unrealized losses on their bond and loan portfolios, after a surge in market interest rates.1 Unrealized losses on bonds and loans held by U.S. banks are expected to have grown in the second and third quarter of 2023, potentially reanimating the banking issue…
Employ America’s Assessment of Supply-Side Improvements Key Takeaways1 Employ America’s U.S. economic index, which represents growth rates, had been declining since December 2021, consistent with economic deceleration. Given the growth pace in 2021, a slowdown was inevitable. The activity index reached a low of 1.4% in May, rising above 1.5% in May…
