Defying Recession Fears, Bank Commercial Lending Accelerates

Favorable Lending Rates Creating a New Bull Market in Bank Stocks The banking industry is healthy with strong capital positions, little loan delinquency, accelerating growth in commercialized lending, and favorable lending rates. IDC Financial Publishing (IDCFP) forecasts core PCE inflation, or sticky core CPI, to moderate to 3% in 2023,…

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Inflation Peaked and Moderates for the Rest of 2022

The consumer price index for July 2022 increased 8.5%, lower than the 9.1% annual gain in June. Month-to-month CPI change was zero. The peak and decline in oil prices and drop in gasoline prices in July drove half of the monthly decreases. Excluding volatile food and energy components, core CPI…

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Inflation Nowcasting Captures Slowdown in Inflationary Drivers

Forecasts for July CPI Forecasts of the slowdown in July CPI, released on August 2, were captured in the Inflation Nowcasting from the Cleveland Federal Reserve. The July month-to-month CPI is estimated at 0.27%, followed by less than 2% monthly increases to December 2022, as indicated by the swap market.1 The…

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The Remarkable Correlation Between Inflation and Banks Stocks

The Changing Characteristics of Inflation From 2015 to 2020, 5-year-ahead inflation was defined as 5-year implied inflation less 10-year implied inflation, or 5-year inflation five years ahead of current inflation. When 5-year-ahead inflation is less than 5 or 10-year implied inflation, it indicates a deflation formation, as future inflation expectations are…

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Forecasts of Cycle Low in Stock Market

A number of approaches forecast a cycle low in the “bear” stock market in July 2022. The data in the bull camp are as follows: a third big week in five for small caps, signs exchange-traded fund buyers have become healthily demoralized, and measures of market breadth expanding in ways…

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