“The correction I failed to see coming provides the next opportunity, with no recession in sight.” – John Rickmeier Beginning February 9, 2022 to date, a major bank stock price correction occurred as a result of the inverted yield curve that forecast a recession.The inverted yield curve between the 10-less-2-year…
Significant Decline in 1-Month Trimmed Core PCE Forecasts Peak in 12-Month in Second Quarter 2022 at Around 5% Chart I The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate is an alternative measure to sticky inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE). It is calculated by…
Misunderstandings and Predictions Made by Stock Market Talking Heads On March 30, 2022, the 2-year T-Note yield rose above the 10-year, inverting the yield curve and forecasting recession in 12 to 18 months. If the 2-year yield is more than the 10-year, how can banks make money paying depositors a 2-year…
In the next two years, banking financials are expected to improve dramatically based on IDC Financial Publishing‘s (IDC’s) NOPAT ROE rising from 15.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021 to a new 10-year high of 21.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023. What fundamentals are driving this secular improvement in…
Updated for 2021Q4In the last five years, banking financials have improved dramatically based on IDC Financial Publishing‘s (IDC’s) NOPAT ROE rising from 12.1% in the fourth quarter of 2016 to a peak of 15.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021. During the same period, reported stockholders ROE increased from 12.7%…
