IDC Financial Publishing (IDCFP) forecast the beginning of the bull market in bank stocks in October 2020 with the anticipated rise in 10-year yields. Our forecasting requires an increase in the 10-year nominal yield, supported by rising TIPS yields, and, especially, a higher German 10-year yield. The first leg of…
Yardeni Research plotted the price of copper with implied inflation (the difference between the 10-year nominal and TIPS yields). Since 2004, once implied inflation reached a peak, the price of copper failed to reach a new high. Given the recent peak in implied inflation of 3%, the price of copper…
In order to understand the forecast of the copper to gold ratio, it is key to examine the components. Copper is the bellwether of the strength of the economy. The price of copper peaked in mid-2018 at $3.42 and fell to a Covid-driven low of $2.15 at the end of…
The flattening of the yield curve, as the U.S. 10-year declines and the 2-year increases, is of great concern to investors today. The fear is that a declining yield curve forecasts a significant economic slowdown, or, if the yield curve narrows to zero, a recession. In the long bank stock bull…
Update as of December 13, 2021 In the last five years, banking financials have improved dramatically based on IDC Financial Publishing‘s (IDC’s) NOPAT ROE rising from 12.0% in the fourth quarter of 2016 to a peak of 20.3% in the first quarter of 2021. During the same period, reported stockholders ROE…
