U.S. banks are poised for a rebound in unrealized losses on their bond and loan portfolios, after a surge in market interest rates.1 Unrealized losses on bonds and loans held by U.S. banks are expected to have grown in the second and third quarter of 2023, potentially reanimating the banking issue…
Employ America’s Assessment of Supply-Side Improvements Key Takeaways1 Employ America’s U.S. economic index, which represents growth rates, had been declining since December 2021, consistent with economic deceleration. Given the growth pace in 2021, a slowdown was inevitable. The activity index reached a low of 1.4% in May, rising above 1.5% in May…
*Core-Cast is Employ America’s unique model to track the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges, Core PCE and Core PCE Services Ex Housing.Monthly "Core Services Ex Housing" Inflation Should Align with Fed's 2% Goals in May Most of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but…
Key Takeaways1 Headline unemployment number rose from 3.4% to 3.7% and the establishment survey showed 339,000 jobs added in May, a very strong showing.Surprisingly, adjusting household employment to the payroll concepts provided 394,000 jobs in May, greater than the 339,000 jobs in the establishment survey. The difference between the payroll and…
Updated for 1st Quarter 2023 RanksOver the next two years, we expect the number of banks issuing brokered CDs to grow to 1,600 by 2024, exceeding the prior high of 1500 (see Chart I). With the dramatic rise in 2 and 5-year yields, so have the yields offered on brokered…
